Report August 2024

Pareturn GVC Gaesco Columbus European Equity Fund class I2 is down 0.36% in August 2024, while up 5.8% over the past six months. August has been a volatile month in the markets, but Columbus has performed steadily. Since its inception in June 2008, the Columbus I2 class has gained 148%, outperforming European equity indices.

August was a difficult month for the markets for various reasons, such as the situation in Japan and employment in the US. The stock markets suffered a sharp correction in the first days of the month (Stoxx50: -6%, Nasdaq: -8%), although they recovered as the days went by. This correction is an indication that the valuations of some assets, especially in the US technology sector, are excessive. At the same time, the US economy is showing signs of exhaustion.

Fortunately, the interest rate cycle is about to turn, which provides good support for the markets and smallcaps in particular. In Europe, valuations are more than reasonable, and we continue to find a lot of value in good European companies that manage to grow globally in a not entirely favorable macroeconomic environment, with very good returns on capital and solid cash flow generation.In August, we have had a good performance in relevant positions such as Kinepolis (+9%), Reply (+9%), YouGov (+8%) and Dalata (+7%). We have also seen a significant rebound in two positions that until now had penalized us: Mobico (+21%), which released good results, and Grifols (GRFB +16%, GRFA +8%), where the process for a potential takeover bid continues. On the negative side, this month has been difficult for Teleperformance (-17%) due to a change of management, and Trainline (-11%) and Kontron (-14%) also fell despite reporting good results.

We have initiated new positions in the portfolio which we will discuss in the coming months. We are also reducing our exposure to the financial sector.

 

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Since May 2023, Spanish investors can access the Columbus strategy through the Spanish fund GVC Columbus European Equities FI. The Fund can be purchased through the AllFunds, Inversis and Fundsettle platforms. Columbus has a Master-Feeder structure. The Pareturn GVC Gaesco Columbus European Equity Fund in Luxembourg (master) and the GVC Columbus European Equities FI (feeder). The Luxembourg vehicle offers institutional and retail share classes denominated in euros and sterling.

Report July 2024

Pareturn GVC Gaesco Columbus European Equity Fund class I2 is up +3.3% in July 2024 and +5.0% over the last three months. July has been a positive month for the Fund. Since its inception in June 2008, Columbus I2 class is up 149%, outperforming European equity indices.

July was a good month for the Fund, especially in relative terms (Stoxx 600: +1.3%). Throughout 2024 we have benefited from several IPOs such as Salcef and Neoen but we have suffered in some positions that are now starting to recover. A prime example is Grifols which rose +18% in July (+27% in Grifols B) a complex situation but where we have a good entry price. Although there is the possibility of an opportunistic public offering by the Brookfield fund, which could benefit us, we believe that the long-term evolution of the company has more potential.

In July, we also had a good performance in relevant positions such as Fresenius, which rose +19%. We have increased our investment in this company, as we continue to see great potential with low risk. Other companies that also performed well were Hiscox (+11%) and Elementis (+10%), both mentioned in the press due to speculation about possible bids. Mobico (+10%) and Teleperformance (+21%) also recovered; although the latter had experienced a notable correction in previous quarters, we still see potential in them.

On the negative side, we had a negative result with Scor (-16%), which issued a profit warning. So far, the reinsurance company had performed well. In this case, we believe that the company’s risk management has proved to be insufficient. We also continued to reduce the position in Unicaja as we believe that after the 47% rise in the year it has a reduced capacity for revaluation. We have initiated two positions in the portfolio which we will discuss in the coming months.

 

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Since May 2023, Spanish investors can access the Columbus strategy through the Spanish fund GVC Columbus European Equities FI. The Fund can be purchased through the AllFunds, Inversis and Fundsettle platforms. Columbus has a Master-Feeder structure. The Pareturn GVC Gaesco Columbus European Equity Fund in Luxembourg (master) and the GVC Columbus European Equities FI (feeder). The Luxembourg vehicle offers institutional and retail share classes denominated in euros and sterling.

Bosco Ojeda, new partner at Columbus

Bosco Ojeda has joined Columbus Investment Partners as a partner.

“I am happy to share that after 25 years in UBS I am starting a new position as investment parter at Columbus, a European Midcap Equity Fund (hosted at GVC Gaesco). Together with my partners, we will manage a fund dedicated to explore opportunities in the small & midcap space.

For many years I have enjoyed working as an equity analyst and team head in small & midcaps in large institutions, now I will continue to be involved in the space but now as an investor.

Smallcaps is a fascinating world, and now more than ever there are great investment opportunities. I truly enjoy analyzing investment ideas, meeting management teams and investors.

I am really grateful to UBS, my colleagues, clients and friends for a long career where I was joined by great professionals in different locations and teams around the world. It has been an amazing experience, during those years I think I have a world record as a covering analyst in more that 30 IPOs, and was able to analyze hundreds of companies in very different fields. I was particularly pleased with the research we provided in areas like smallcaps, ‘family-owned’ companies and infrastructure. And I am pleased to look back and see that we tried hard to work with integrity, care and respect for others and the role we play in society”.

Report September 2023

imagen ficha junio

Pareturn Columbus European Equity class I is down -2.37% in September 2023.

The month of September has been a complicated month for the stock markets, dragged down by the behavior of the fixed income markets. The MSCI Midcap index is down -3.00% in September and almost -4% in the last quarter, largely driven by difficulties in controlling inflation and fear of a longer period of high rates.

Since its creation in June 2008, Columbus has obtained a return of 126%, far exceeding European equity benchmarks.

Despite external headwinds, it is interesting to note that relative valuations of European smallcaps are already pricing in tough macro developments and a higher rate environment in the last decade.

The interest rate environment and inflation dynamics are conditioning the market, and it is foreseeable that it will continue to do so. So far, the global economy has been resilient in the face of a sharp rise in rates. The consensus expects the economy to slow down in 2024 and begin a period of rate cuts that may be favorable for bond and equity valuations. However, the risk of a harsh macro adjustment and persistent inflation remains present. In this environment, Columbus’ portfolio is well positioned with high-margin companies and relatively healthy balance sheets.

Regarding the Columbus portfolio, during the month of September, the positive performance of companies with good growth expectations stands out, such as Computacenter (+16% in the month) and Trainline (+20%) and Elecnor (+8.5%). Both Computacenter and Trainline reported quarterly results that positively surprised the market.

On the negative side, Ariston dropped 15% when the structure of the subsidies that the Italian government offers for the replacement of water heaters was modified. We believe that this sharp decline is excessive and do not reflect the good performance of the company after the purchase of the German company Centrotec Climate Systems in Germany last year.

 

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Since May 2023, Spanish investors have been able to access the Columbus strategy through the Spanish GVC Columbus European Equities FI fund. The Fund can be purchased through the AllFunds, Inversis and Fundsettle platforms. Columbus has a Master-Feeder structure: The Pareturn GVC Gaesco Columbus European Equity Fund in Luxembourg (master) and the GVC Columbus European Equties FI fund (subordinate). The Luxembourg vehicle offers institutional share classes denominated in euros and sterling and retail in euros and can be purchased by international investors.

Report February 2023

Informe Columbus Septiembre 2020

Pareturn Columbus European equities Class I is up by 1.90% in February 2023 and by 9.66% in the last 3 months, higher than the European equity markets. Since inception in June 2008, Columbus has returned 147.4%, far outperforming the European equity markets.

We maintain our view that the key to the behaviour of the markets is the evolution of inflation. It has now peaked and begun its journey to lower levels and the markets have reacted to the upside. Investors are assuming a longer period of higher interest rates as they begin to accept the message from Central Banks that more time is needed to cool inflation in the face of resilient labour markets.

Market sentiment continues to shift depending on whether participants believe the economy is headed for a hard or soft recession. Expectations of where terminal rates end up in the US continue to rise, standing at 5.5% now and moving higher. Since 2012, Central Banks have committed to a 2% inflation target. The appropriateness of the 2% inflation target itself, could be questioned, and we could see changes over the years to a higher target (3%-4%). For the time being, Central Banks are sticking at least verbally to that target.

Chart performance Columbus

As for the quarterly results companies continue to surprise both in sales and profits as they publish their results. Nevertheless, they are moderating their guidance for the coming quarters and the message to control spending is spreading, in anticipation of a slowdown in economic activity.

As for the Columbus portfolio, the main performers during February have been Borregaard (Biochemicals, Norway) up 14.7% after publishing better than expected quarterly results with sales increases of more than 20% and Ebitda up by 38%. Dalata Hotel (Hotels, Ireland) also performed well (+10.9% up in February). The Irish hotel company also announced results that exceed the income of 2019, the last year before the pandemic, by more than 20%. On the negative side, Global Dominion fell on the stock market by -10.8% in February. The Spanish services and projects company surprised the market by increasing its stake in its renewable energy subsidiary from 35% to 98%. The transaction also changes the company’s financial profile by going from a net cash position to having financial debt. We await the presentation of the business plan to obtain more information on the new strategy.

 

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Since June 14, 2018, both national and foreign investors have been able to access the Columbus strategy through the Master-Feeder structure between Columbus 75 Sicav in Spain and the Luxembourg registered Pareturn Columbus European Equities Fund offers institutional and retail share classes denominated in euros. We have also just set up a sterling share class to facilitate investments from the UK. The Spanish Sicav has been dissolved in December 2022 to adapt to the new Spanish legislation. Total return for the Sicav since inception in June 2008 was 113.32%.

Report January 2023

Pareturn Columbus European equities Class I is up by 8.80% in January 2023 and by 15.16% in the last 3 months, higher than the European equity markets. Since inception in June 2008, Columbus has returned 142.7%, far outperforming the European equity markets.

We maintain our view that the key to the behaviour of the markets is the evolution of inflation. It has now peaked and begun its journey to lower levels and the markets have reacted to the upside. Investors are assuming a longer period of higher interest rates as they begin to accept the message from Central Banks that more time is needed to cool inflation in the face of resilient labour markets.

Since 2012, Central Banks have committed to a 2% inflation target. The appropriateness of the 2% inflation target itself, could be questioned, and we could see changes over the years to a higher target (3%-4%). For the time being, Central Banks are sticking at least verbally to that target.

A very important development is that Europe has managed to make it through winter so far without severe energy shortages, thanks to above normal temperatures, ample supplies, and reduced consumption. Gas storage sites are around 81% full, some 20 percentage points above the five-year average. The region is on track to end the season with inventories over 50% and more than enough gas to completely replenish its storages by the start of next winter.

 

Companies continue to surprise both in sales and profits as they publish their results. Nevertheless, they are moderating their guidance for the coming quarters and the message to control spending is spreading, in anticipation of a slowdown in economic activity.

As for the Columbus portfolio, the main performers during January have been Fraport (Frankfurt airport) up 36.8% and Autotrader (+21.6%), the UK second hand car web. The main laggard was Neoen (-8.7%) the French renewable company. The strong price movements were not reactions to specific company news.

 

Download monthly factsheet [PDF]

 

Since June 14, 2018, both national and foreign investors have been able to access the Columbus strategy through the Master-Feeder structure between Columbus 75 Sicav in Spain and the Luxembourg registered Pareturn Columbus European Equities Fund offers institutional and retail share classes denominated in euros. We have also just set up a sterling share class to facilitate investments from the UK. The Spanish Sicav has been dissolved in December 2022 to adapt to the new Spanish legislation. Total return for the Sicav since inception in June 2008 was 113.32%.

Columbus Report Fourth Quarter 2022

We maintain our view that the key to the behaviour of the markets is the evolution of inflation. It has now peaked and begun its journey to lower levels and the markets have reacted to the upside.

Pareturn Columbus is up by 9.71% in the last quarter of 2022 in line with European markets. During December it fell by -1.09%, less than markets. During 2022, it fell by -23.2%, the worst year since we started in 2008. Since inception in June 2008, Columbus has returned 123%, far outperforming the European equity markets.

Inflation was the dominant economic and financial issue of 2022 for most countries around the world. Three things seem to have changed as we begin 2023. The first is that inflation is starting to come down globally and, in many respects, has come down faster than markets anticipated. In response to falling inflation, markets have begun to price in peak interest rates from central banks in the last part of this year and in 2024 and beyond. Finally, China has reopened following the end of the Covid restrictions, adding to global economic growth.

Since 2012, Central Banks have committed to a 2% inflation target. The appropriateness of the 2% inflation target itself, could be questioned, and we could see changes over the years to a higher target (3%-4%). For the time being, Central Banks are sticking at least verbally to that target. In this new year, investors will also focus on what kind of recession we get, long or short, and how deep, or if it is simply an economic slowdown and recession has been avoided.

A very important development is that Europe has managed to make it through winter so far without severe energy shortages, thanks to above normal temperatures, ample supplies, and reduced consumption. Gas storage sites are around 81% full, some 20 percentage points above the five-year average. The region is on track to end the season with inventories over 50% and more than enough gas to completely replenish its storages by the start of next winter.

We have transitioned into a new investment era over the last 12-18 months. The post-global-financial-crisis “free money era”, which supported outperformance from growth, technology, and US equities, has ended. The brave new world which investors face supports the return of price to the centre of the investment process.

For equity investors, we view Europe as better placed relative to US equities, with support from valuation for similar growth profiles and a soft US dollar. Europe also has greater exposure to China re-opening. We would also consider growth or quality at a reasonable price. It’s an evolution that makes the global economy and investment portfolios subject to a wider range of potential outcomes.

As for the portfolio, the main performers during the quarter have been Durr AG (+49.9%), a German industrial company; Scor SE (+45.8%) reinsurance provider and Elementis (+33.4%) a supplier of raw materials. Detractors were the bus company National Express (-22.9%) and the digital services company Reply (-0.5%). The strong price movements were not reactions to specific company news.

 

Download monthly factsheet [PDF]

We thank you for your trust and wish the best to you and your families during these uncertain times.

Since June 14, 2018, both national and foreign investors have been able to access the Columbus strategy through the Master-Feeder structure between Columbus 75 Sicav in Spain (feeder) and the registered Pareturn GVC Gaesco Columbus European Midcap Equity Fund in Luxembourg (master). The Luxembourg vehicle offers institutional and retail share classes denominated in euros. We have also just set up a sterling share class to facilitate investment from the UK. The Spanish Sicav was dissolved to adapt to the new Spanish legislation. Total return for the Sicav since inception in June 2008 was 113.32%.

Report September 2022

September ends with sharp drops in the equity market. The stock market’s status quo, has not fundamentally changed. Everything is still focused on inflation. The message from the central banks has been clear: The priority is to control inflation, even at the cost of sacrificing more growth and employment. In recent weeks, this has led to increased expectations of further interest rate hikes, and the conviction that these will remain high for longer.

Pareturn GVC Gaesco Columbus European Equity Fund Class I fell 10.63% during September, worse than European stock markets. Since its inception in June 2008, Columbus has returned 103.38%, far outperforming European equity indices. The volatility during the last twelve months has been 20%.

We continue to think that the key to the behaviour of the markets is the future evolution of inflation. The falls we have seen in the price of oil and other raw materials, as well as the easing of supply chain disruptions and improvements in freight prices should result in lower inflation. We believe that these decreases will begin to materialize in the last quarter of this year and especially in 2023 when last year’s energy increases will fall out of the calculation.

In many aspects, the fundamentals remain favourable: labour demand is at record levels both in the US and Europe, the financial system is well capitalized, families have high levels of savings accumulated during the pandemic, companies have not increased their productive capacity. Nevertheless, growth in 2023 will be weak with a growing risk of recession, especially in Europe (late 2022-early 23) and in the US next year.

As for the portfolio, the fund underperformed the market over the month, with many companies falling sharply, with no news on individual stocks. Highlights, on the positive side:

  •   Ariston (+17.06% in September). The Italian heater company announced the purchase of Centrotec Climate Systems GmbH. The acquired company is a world leader in heat pumps. It is an acquisition that complements the range of Ariston products and allows entry into other segments such as ventilation.
  •   Krones (+10.35%). The German bottling machinery company raised its expected sales guidance for this year, while hoping to maintain its margins. During the month, we also completed the sale of VGP, Safestore and Dormakaba.

We reiterate what we said last month: we think that stock markets will react positively when we start to see better inflation data, in the last quarter of this year and in the first quarter of next year. European equity valuations are below their average valuations in recent years, mutual funds have increased their cash levels dramatically and investor pessimism is at its highest level since 2009. All of these are positive indicators for future stock behaviour. We do not know if it is the best time to buy but it is a good time.

 

Download monthly factsheet [PDF]

We thank you for your trust and wish the best to you and your families during these uncertain times.

Since June 14, 2018, both national and foreign investors can access the Columbus strategy through the Master-Feeder structure between Columbus 75 Sicav in Spain (feeder) and the registered Pareturn GVC Gaesco Columbus European Midcap Equity Fund in Luxembourg (master). The Luxembourg vehicle offers institutional and retail share classes denominated in euros. We have also just set up a sterling share class to facilitate investment from the UK.

Monthly Report July 2022

Pareturn GVC Gaesco Columbus European Equity Fund class I rose by +6.20% in July. In the last twelve months, the Fund fell by -12.65% but its 3-year performance remains strong at +20.21%. Since its inception in June 2008, Columbus has returned +140.93%, far outperforming European equity indices. The volatility in the last 12 months has been 16%.

The European Central Bank’s first interest rate rise in 8 years took place in July. The US Federal Reserve also raised interest rates again by 0.75pp, to 2.5%. These increases in interest rates have pushed down the yield on 10-year government bonds by almost 1pp from the maximum marked last month. The markets have already priced in the belief that these interest rate changes will suppress inflation whilst also causing a recession, which we believe will not be severe.

We continue to believe that the key to the market’s behavior is the future evolution of inflation. The dips we have seen in the price of oil and other raw materials, as well as the easing of supply chain disruptions, such as improvements in freight prices, hint toward inflation drops, which will materialize in the last quarter of this year and especially in 2023. We reiterate what we pointed out last month: we believe there will be a bullish stock market reaction once inflation data begins to improve. Finally, we also note that fixed income markets are anticipating falls in interest rates next year and that mutual funds continue to hold very high levels of cash. Both are positive aspects for future stock market performance.

Listed companies’ first half results had a positive impact on global stock markets, which have now recovered part of the losses suffered in the first half of the year. The published results of the companies show double-digit growth in sales and a narrowing of margins derived from cost increases in some sectors, but which still allow profits to grow. Only a quarter of the companies in the markets have published lower than expected results.

Three companies stood out in the Columbus portfolio this month:

  • You Gov (+26.2% in July): The British online data analysis company increased revenues by 28% in the first half of the year whilst establishing healthier margins. The growth of their American business was the principal source of the top-line re-acceleration. Management does not appreciate any changes in customer behavior due to the macroeconomic situation.
  • Senior Plc (+23.2% in July): The British industrial components company increased revenues by 21% in the first half of the year, also with healthier margins. Moreover, they announced they will be distributing dividends again.
  • Neoen (+18.3% in July): The French renewables company income grew by 36% more and showed a 39% improvement in EBITDA. The company also increased its earnings guidance for this year.

Unfortunately, there was negative news from Scor SE. Due to losses associated with climate change, the French reinsurance company posted worse-than-expected results in its Property & Casualty business. In November, they will present a plan to reduce their exposure to this sector. The stock has a dividend of close to 10% with very attractive valuations. We remain positive on its value given the valuation and upcoming restructuring.

The markets are changing rapidly so we believe it is crucial to mold our portfolio to the new reality. The retreat of globalization, and the return of inflation, economic cycles and volatility will mark the markets in the future. Since the last great crisis, now more than 10 years ago, lower growth has been a signal to buy risky assets since, generally, an increase in liquidity was generated by the Central Banks. Investors got used to an environment in which equity and bond markets were negatively correlated, while Central Banks increased liquidity if economic activity deteriorated. We think this will be less likely going forward, as Central Banks assess the risks of increasing liquidity versus higher inflation. We also believe that equity markets will once again factor in more frequent business cycles. All this will generate opportunities for active management, like ours, to add substantial value to our clients.

 

Download monthly factsheet [PDF]

We thank you for your trust and wish the best to you and your families during these uncertain times.

Since June 14, 2018 both domestic and foreign investors have been able to access the Columbus strategy via the master-feeder structure between the Columbus 75 Sicav in Spain (feeder) and the Luxembourg registered Pareturn GVC Gaesco Columbus European Midcap Equity Fund (master). The Luxembourg vehicle offers both institutional and retail share classes.

Report June 2022

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The month of June ends with sharp falls across practically all asset classes. The main equity indices have lost close to 9% of their value. The sharp declines are not just in stock markets. The falls in the fixed income markets have also set off alarm bells. On the positive side, we believe that after falls of around 20% since the beginning of the year, much of the bad news is already reflected in prices.

During June, the Pareturn GVC Gaesco Columbus European MidCap Equity Fund class I fell -10.28%. In the last twelve months the Fund has fallen -11.82%, while it has risen 12.98% over the last three years. Since its inception in June 2008, Columbus has returned 126.87%, far outperforming European equity indices. The volatility in the last 12 months has been 16%. The fund has recently received a four-star rating from Morningstar.

The key continues to be inflation, which is currently highly affected by the price of raw materials, especially energy, and by disruptions in supply chains. The falls that we have seen in the price of oil and other raw materials and the improvements in the price of freight should result in improvements in inflation, which will materialize in the last quarter of this year and especially in 2023. We think that markets will react when we start to see better inflation data.

The market is also closely watching companies’ second-quarter results, especially margins, as it seeks to determine the extent to which companies have been able to pass on price increases to their customers. We believe that the combination of cost increases in transportation, raw materials and labor is not yet fully reflected in analysts’ estimates. Margins and financing costs are two of the main risks with regards to maintaining the high returns on capital achieved during the last two years despite the disruptions caused by Covid.

On the positive side, we believe that after falls of around 20% since the beginning of the year, much of the bad news is already reflected in prices. The valuations of many good companies are already much more realistic. We are positive for the next twelve months. Keep in mind that markets start to rise when you’re pricing in a recession, data is bad, and company earnings have been revised down. Fixed income futures are also beginning to anticipate falls in interest rates next year and investment funds are at record levels of liquidity after the sales of recent days. We’re not there yet, but we are fast approaching.

 

 

Download monthly factsheet [PDF]

We thank you for your trust and wish the best to you and your families during these uncertain times.

Since June 14, 2018 both domestic and foreign investors have been able to access the Columbus strategy via the master-feeder structure between the Columbus 75 Sicav in Spain (feeder) and the Luxembourg registered Pareturn GVC Gaesco Columbus European Midcap Equity Fund (master). The Luxembourg vehicle offers both institutional and retail share classes.